10 Reasons Why A Tier 5 Unemployment Extension May Happen For The 99ers

I've been actively following the online comments on whether or not a tier 5 unemployment extension would happen for the 99ers and have read a lot of discouraging remarks.  Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has introduced The Americans Want to Work Act (S.3706) and even she says it will be a challenge to pass it what with the Republican obstructionists in the Senate who consistently vote no on everything presented.  Many of the comments from people seem to be very discouraging with many people stating there is no way it will happen although it's a nice idea.  However I feel pretty confident that it will pass and will leave you all with 10 reasons why a tier 5 unemployment extension may indeed happen for the 99ers.

1.  The Americans Want to Work Act (S.3706) is coming out the gate much stronger than H.R. 4213.
H.R. 4213 was the last unemployment extension that passed.  All the unemployment tiers up to tier 4 expired and it was what renewed it.  The thing about H.R. 4213 is it was sponsored by Charles Rangel (D-NY) alone.  Currently S.3706, the bill that will create a tier 5, is introduced and sponsored by at least 10 Democrats including the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  By co-sponsoring it they are not only vouching for it and asserting their influence over seeing it passed, but are already saying "I vote yes on this".  So it's got a lot more people behind it and appears to be something that they all want to be associated with for a number of reasons.

2.  S.3706 will cost less than H.R. 4213.
The way many of these unemployment extensions are setup is they have a set expiration date.  By setting a date range, it allows the Senate and House to be able to calculate how much it will cost.  So obviously S.3706 will also be given a date range where it will then expire.  Meaning current 99ers will qualify for it but it will not go on forever obviously.  So what does this mean?  It means that H.R. 4213 which covers Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 and Tier 4 is obviously much more expensive then a bill that is for just one tier (Tier 5).  Do the math and you'll see that if both are given roughly the same date range for people who qualify for them, that S.3706 will be a much smaller bill as far as costs are concerned when it's calculated versus H.R. 4213.  This means it may be an easier pill to swallow for the Republicans as well as it might be easier to find funds to help balance out its cost.

3.  There is now a bill in the Senate and the House for a Tier 5 unemployment extension.
Shelley Berkley (D-NV) has introduced the The Emergency Unemployment Compensation Act which has around 12 Democrat co-sponsors.  One concern of many 99ers is that this bill has a threshold of 10% whereas Stabenow's bill has a threshold of 7.5%.  However for either bills to pass in the Senate, they will need to get Republican votes. And the only Republican votes they've gotten on the last extension and the teacher bill were from two Republican senators in Maine. So at a minimum if they want this to pass, they need to include Maine, and Maine's unemployment rate is around 8%.  The Republican Senators from Maine have already said that they favor Stabenow's bill. Why would they turn and support this over Stabenow's when this bill doesn't even include them? Stabenow was smart, she knows she needs Maine which is why she set her threshold at 7.5% to include them. That gives Maine some wiggle room to qualify, even if their unemployment rate drops some from 8%.  What this House bill allows for however, is something else existing in the House that can and will likely change once they realize what Stabenow realized, they need Maine's vote in the Senate.  I feel confident the threshold will be lowered on the House bill, and we'll have two bills that will be adjusted accordingly to increase the odds for many 99ers, that they'll see a tier 5 extension.

4.  This being an election year, S.3706 helps Senators buy votes, literally.
There are a few things that help a politicians literally buy votes.  When they give money back to people in the form of tax cuts and when they approve things like unemployment benefit extensions to millions of people.  Being that we are in an election year for many of the senators, every vote counts. 

5.  There has been an increase in public scrutiny for those who have opposed similar legistlation.
Whether it's from the general public who are spreading the word through blogs or television commentators like Ed Schultz helping to lead the fight for 99ers, people are watching these topics on unemployment and jobs because it is the hottest political topic right now.  Many people are desperate and have the available time because they are unemployed.  Combine those two things (desperation and free time) and you have a large number of people who will continue posting and going after those who attempt to vote this down.  If you don't believe it, look at the petition on change.org with over 40,000+ signatures.  Or the facebook page, or all the blogs that keep popping up, or the 99ers wikipedia page.  The 99ers aren't dumb, many are very talented, educated and experienced in many things and will continue to fight in every way they know how for this cause until either jobs are created or an extension is passed.  People are being held accountable on this issue more than any other and won't be able to escape their no vote on it.

6.  The unemployment rates aren't getting better.
The fact that government economists are coming out and saying that they project high unemployment going well into the rest of the year and possibly further into 2011, coupled with recent numbers that show unemployment near new highs, indicates that they can no longer brush this issue aside.  It's painfully obvious that all the data supports a tier 5 unemployment extension and possibly even a tier 6 or 7.  It's simply not looking good and unless they all want to be out of a job come election time, this is one issue that should be a no brainer in passing.

7.  They have the money to pay for it.
Requiring that unemployment extensions be paid for is just hollow rhetoric.  You often hear that unless it's paid for it won't pass.  The reality is that most of what Republicans and Democrats pass is not paid for and is deficit spending, hence the deficit we are at.  Outside of that reality is the repeated message that they still have billions of economic stimulus money that has not been touched that could be used towards unemployment extensions.  The money is there if they want to use it, and is actually set aside to be used for this exact reason!  On top of that, as the next reason states, this may be one of the best ways to spend that economic stimulus money.

8.  Recent data shows that unemployment extensions stimulate the economy instantly.
I've read article after article stating that unemployment extensions stimulate the economy.  The information is out there, it will be used when presenting this bill and when the bill is discussed, many people know this.  The simple theory is that the unemployed spend their money instantly back into the economy to pay their bills, rent, buy food and the bare necessities for their children like diapers and school supplies.  For many of the unemployed, they may also spend it on cheap fast food, gas, oil changes or a new tire so they can drive around without having a blow out.  Many businesses in turn directly benefit from this.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, unemployment extensions are in many ways a credit to small business owners.  Because as soon as the unemployed get the money, it's going right to the small business owners who runs these businesses.

9.  No unemployment extensions means more layoffs and a higher unemployment rate.
Politicians pride themselves on improving conditions, however when the numbers get worse on their watch, it's only so long that they can blame the last administration or the other side, be it Democrat or Republican.  I know this is rarely to never discussed but if you were to remove all the unemployment extensions from the current system and all that money out of circulation, many businesses would dry up and some would grind to a halt, especially in poorer areas.  This in turn leads to more layoffs, more people filing for unemployment and more scarcity in jobs.  More layoffs then lead to more layoffs and so forth.  This is how we got into this situation!  The irony is if people had jobs, more people would be hiring to meet the demand from all the spending.  Part of this is due to lax legistlation in the past that has led to a tremendous amount of outsourcing.  The reason unemployment rates are climbing, may be from the government allowing the last extensions to lapse for so long and not being proactive with this issue until things seem to get unbearably bad for many of the unemployed.  Who wants to spend anything if they are fearful?  And what business owner wants to hire more people if they see the spending habits of the fearful people who are reluctant to spend.  Even the people who have jobs are afraid to spend because the way things are going, hours are being cut, people are being laid off, or they are being overworked with twice as many duties as before until they get burned out.  Luckily for us, this is one reason that rears its ugly head.  The longer they don't extend unemployment for the 99ers, the higher unemployment rates climb and the worse they look until they are voted out.  The proof is in the numbers.

10.  They are so far behind on this key issue that they have to pass it to hide their incompetence.
I know this is a harsh reason, but lets face the facts.  What else are they doing?  Do you know of any action packed legistlation that is on the forefront to create jobs?  Are they doing anything big to tackle outsourcing and to bring the jobs back here?  All one has to do is study what FDR did in regards to things like a Federal Work Program and you'd see how completely incompetant these politicians have been in tackling this issue at its root, creating jobs.  I've heard people arguing that a great way to stimulate the economy would be to pass legistlation that tackles infrastructure repairs.  You know, repairing the nations roads, schools, electrical grid what with all the blackouts going on.  This would in turn create more jobs and instead of giving people money for nothing as some Republicans call it, the government and the states would get something out of the people in return.  Spending would increase and more companies would begin hiring and things could turn around.  There are many ways to fix the problem that could be taken directly from the playbook of past presidents.  However here we are and there seems to be nothing optimistic on the horizon from any of the politicians out there.  The government could create wind power plants and solar power plants, create low income housing, do practically hundreds of things that could help create jobs while creating something tangible but they are sitting on their hands.  So to mask their incompetence and the fact that they are so far behind on this key issue, they may have to buy themselves some times and pass this before people start asking the question, "what the hell have you done to create jobs?"

Bonus Reason:  Both the Republicans and Democrats have no problem spend spend spending money.
I know this is something that may come across as a bad thing, however this may be one instance where it helps our cause.  They simply do not care when it comes to spending.  Here we are in a horrible economic situation, record high unemployment rates, two wars that are draining the country dry financially.  Massive record spending from the Bush administration and now the current Obama administration.  Everything from two wars to wall street bailouts to health care to whatever they think to spend money on or give money to.  With all this pork spending and with all the record deficits, what do they go and do, they vote and give themselves pay raises!  Here we are going broke as a nation and they give themselves pay raises.  Let me tell you, if a CEO of a company gave himself a pay raise during a time of record layoffs at his company and record debt at his company, the stockholders and board would fire him.  I just wanted to paint the picture of what we are dealing with here, these people LOVE to spend spend spend money.  It is absolutely nothing to them, it's almost unconsiousable to possibly even unethical that they could even give themselves pay raises.  And outright shameful that they could do it and then insult those poor people out there who desperately need help with a tier 5 extension.  So as sad as this is, count this as the tenth reason that you may see this pass, because if they can give themselves pay raises, helping the poor stay off the streets should be an obvious decision to support.

So there you have it, ten reasons and a bonus reason.  Some of you may still not be convinced so I'll throw in 5 bonus reasons why it will likely pass.

B1.  If they don't pay for it with an extension, the government tab will be picked up in homeless shelters and soup kitchens.
B2.  If they don't pay for it with an extension, the government tab will be picked up in increased spending to combat crime.  As well as the negative repurcussions of increased crime on society (fear), on businesses and on political approval ratings.
B3.  If they don't pay for it with an extension, they'll likely do irreparable damage to their image as politicians with more widespread street protests and lobbying against them online.
B4.  We may continue to see suicide rates go up, which in turn creates a more hostile society that nobody wants to live in.
B5.  Many people will never forget when someone turns their back on them when they need them the most.  In turn things like this create life long grudges and hatred.  For many the damage is irreperable with bad credit, a lost house, a repoed car, lost pride and self worth, a lost retirement account or savings account.  These are the type of people you really don't want hating you since they have very little left to lose.  I've had people try to take down my character as a human being for a lot less.  God forbid I ever get on someone's bad side that is having not only a very bad day but a very bad year.  Even I'm afraid of really poor people, and I'm really poor.  The irony.


Hope this makes some of you feel better, stay optimistic and hopeful and I hope and pray that things turn around for you soon!!